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    Economic forecasting [er] : models, indicators and data needs. European Commission. Statistical Office of the European Union.
    Publication
    Luxembourg : Publications Office, 2003.
    Edition
    2003 edition.
    Summary
    Economic forecasting is a difficult ‘art’ and a good performance demands a balanced use of different models, ad hoc indicators and a huge amount of good data. The better data available and, in general, the more developed models the less need we have for ad hoc indicators. However, economic theory should always play a significant role. On the other hand, if we rely only on economic theory and theory related empirical models significant forecast mistakes are more likely than if we combine model work and non-economic statistical work containing information based on high frequency macroeconomic indicators. Furthermore, many other sources of information are relevant such as survey data. In this paper we look at the benefit and the shortcoming of using the traditional large-scale macroeconomic model and how these shortcomings can be reduced if a large-scale macroeconomic model is combined with non-economic statistical work.
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