| Summary |
The drafting of this Programming document takes place in an unprecedented context. The European Union, along with the rest of the world, has been severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, with millions of cases reported in the European Economic Area (EEA) and the United Kingdom (UK), and more than 200,000 deaths. EU Member States have reacted by introducing various restrictions while simultaneously introducing support measures for business and citizens. Social partners have made a solid contribution to the efforts by among other activities negotiating support measures and ensuring that workplaces remain safe. With an already slowing economy, the pandemic has pushed the European economy into a sudden recession with the deepest output contraction since World War II. According to the European Commission summer forecast, GDP in the EU is foreseen to contract by 8.3% in 2020 and expected to expand by around 5.8% in 2021. The shock has been asymmetric, hitting countries and industries with different strength, depth and persistence; this could lead to an unequal recovery with bigger and more persistent differences across the EU Member States, sectors and specific groups. The crisis has had a substantial impact on the European labour market, sparking a rise in unemployment, an important increase in the take-up of short-time work and an unprecedented use of teleworking. After eight years of continuous decline in unemployment (from 11.4% in 2013 to 6.5% in February 2020), it has now begun to rise, hours worked have decreased by up to 25% from the first and second quarters 2020, and the prevalence of short-time working schemes across the EU have prevented more large-scale job losses. In June 2020, more than 42 million workers had applied for short-time working schemes – 27% of all employees in the EU. Millions of workers have been teleworking since the lockdown in March 2020 and many will continue to do so.2 The economic outlook is uncertain, depending on recurrent spikes of the outbreak, how confinement and support measures are applied, and the asymmetric impact on industries and countries. There can be little doubt that the COVID-19 crisis and its aftermath will bring structural changes to the labour market and its functioning, as well as how we live and work. The impact of the COVID-19 crisis could compound the marked increase in perceptions of insecurity and concerns about prospects for the future, not only among the most marginalised but also among larger parts of society, leading to expressions of division, disenchantment and distrust with the establishment, not least in relation to EU integration. In parallel, the mega-drivers of structural change in Europe remain related to demography, technology, globalisation and climate change. Technological change continues apace and is to a certain extent compounded by the COVID-19 crisis. Automation, not least as enabled by artificial intelligence (AI), will both destroy and create jobs and change the nature of work. Eurofound showed that while the transition to a carbon-neutral economy can be expected to create more jobs than it destroys, it also alters the structure of employment.3 This transition poses broader challenges to life and work in light of the ambitious targets set by the EU and should be added to the challenges arising from the COVID-19 crisis. Another structural change for the EU will be the reduction of its size from 28 to 27 Member States. The year 2020 will mark the end of the Brexit transition period and the beginning of a new relationship between the EU and the UK. Demographic change will intensify many current challenges. An ageing population such as in Europe accentuates labour shortages and skills mismatches and poses challenges to (long-term) health care and sustainability and adequacy of pensions. The population of Africa is projected to double by 2050 (UN World Population Prospects 2017), while also other regions are likely to remain a source of migrants. This combination of demographic shortages in the EU and a demographic boom in areas neighbouring the continent is likely to continue to place severe pressure on migration flows and the integrative capacity of societies and workplaces in Europe and may in turn create challenges for the cohesion of the EU. Structural change brings many challenges for employment and living and working conditions, but it can also be an opportunity to advance towards a more inclusive, innovative and sustainable Europe. |
